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I'll start, one year worth of enchants, morphed when necessary from ancient -> legendary -> ultimate -> paragon -> blessed paragon, I ended up having slightly more than 400 paragon enchants. Thousands of bobonerk gems and trillions worth of XP to make the bobonerk coins to gems.

I used quite a few to make a SB to +6, then it broke towards +7 with normal paragon enchants, then I restored it and said to use blessed from that part and on hoping to make it at least +8  or something.

It required 21 blessed enchants to turn +7, then the other 4 obviously failed. I am videotaping (and taking screenshots) from the whole thing mostly so I can count and make sure when i use the 100 enchants I will be eligible for the +8 chest.

I am almost not even mad or feel stupid for participating on this, whenever something requires enchanting or craft-procing or RNG it is made to kinah sink, or enchant sink, or generally make the players poor and lose things they accumulated from playing a lot of time, but I had hundreds of enchants and there is no reason playing the game if you only accumulate things and never try anything, so there I am I participated.

I sure do feel sorry for those that will spend hundreds/thousands on this event and fail (unless BCM bought enchants do not fail as much as normal ingame enchants do)

...btw anyone knows the chance to turn a +6 to +7? Am I in accordance to the rates or am I unlucky?

paragon-failure.jpg

 

Edited by Arhangelos
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Posted (edited)

Now I am trying to use 100 in total to make me eligible for the +8, I managed to make a SB to +6 and an orb to +6 that I had a since last year's Tiamaranta event, they both went to +6, the SB already broke from +6 to +7 and is about to get it's restoration and will most likely remain +6 forever. Once restored, I will try to enchant with normal enchants the orb too, if it breaks, it will be restored and that is it.

It seems taking a paragon to +6 so far is not that hard for me. I wish I had more paragon items to enchant but I am not going to buy anything from broker to enchant for sure, plus my tickets will be gone so there will be no way I can restore a broken item afterwards.

paragon-enchanting.jpg

 

 

Edited by Arhangelos
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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, The Secret Cow Level said:

Thanks, it seems using 20 blessed to reach a +7 is in accordance to the rates then! It was 5% for me, while the spreadsheet rate at +6 to +7 is about 5,6%.

I can't believe anyone will be able to make a +9 to +10 with 1,5% rate! That is ridiculous.

Edited by Arhangelos
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On 4/3/2022 at 10:58 AM, Arhangelos said:

Thanks, it seems using 20 blessed to reach a +7 is in accordance to the rates then! It was 5% for me, while the spreadsheet rate at +6 to +7 is about 5,6%.

I can't believe anyone will be able to make a +9 to +10 with 1,5% rate! That is ridiculous.

Yes thats about right - I don't know anyone who made or received a +9 from the superb box. I had a 7 for about a year that finally went 8 and have now made a greatsword 8...I don't know if I will even get 1 to 9 will need a lot of luck - i highly doubt anyone will get 3. I ask around if anyone has made one and so far nothing. It is just too hard and too expensive.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Zappies-DN said:

Yes thats about right - I don't know anyone who made or received a +9 from the superb box. I had a 7 for about a year that finally went 8 and have now made a greatsword 8...I don't know if I will even get 1 to 9 will need a lot of luck - i highly doubt anyone will get 3. I ask around if anyone has made one and so far nothing. It is just too hard and too expensive.

If I could get paragon items easier or faster or if I run 100 chars on the event, I could have probably turned 1x paragon enchant to 1x blessed and I could have made it, but 10x paragon enchants for 1x blessed via morphing was nothing but an enchant sink event.

I am not complaining, I participated willingly, I have nothing else to enchant now so I couldn't care, I am accumulating enchants rather fast. If we get tiamaranta event after this I'll be a bit mad because i would have been able to get paragon items 100%.

Edited by Arhangelos
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I can give you a great deal of experience on Paragon Enchantment during this event.  I will also do an unofficial public service announcement since NCSoft has failed to do so (which failure is central to a claim for relief/arbitration that I am currently considering) (DISCLAIMER: I have repeatedly asked Support for an explanation and have been repeatedly told to post my experience on the forums; as such I am doing so at the direction of multiple GMs in compliance with the User Agreement and the Terms of Service).

WARNING!  ENCHANTMENT DURING THIS EVENT MAY BE AT A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RATE FROM "NORMAL" FOR ANY PARAGON EQUIPMENT ABOVE +6.  YOU SHOULD NOT BASE YOUR JUDGMENT ON WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS EVENT ON ANY UNOFFICIAL PUBLISHED RATES OR PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE ENCHANTING PARAGON EQUIPMENT.

This has been neither confirmed nor denied by Support at multiple levels after multiple inquiries who have instead made several vague and potentially intentionally misleading statement regarding the system "working as intended".

And a second PSA which has been confirmed to me by Support.

WARNING! ENCHANTING A PARAGON ITEM THAT WAS +9 BEFORE THE EVENT TO +10 OR BETTER DURING THE EVENT WILL NOT COUNT TOWARDS QUALIFYING FOR THE EVENT REWARDS OTHER THAN WITH RESPECT TO THE NUMBER OF PARAGON STONES USED, WHICH WILL STILL COUNT TOWARDS THE "CONSUME 100 PARAGON STONES" REWARD LEVEL.

Using  approximately 1,402 blessed paragon enchantment stones , here are my results above +6 (the following may be a bit off, but is materially accurate to the best of my knowledge; THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ILLUSTRATIVE AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON WHEN MAKING A DECISION REGARDING AION GENERALLY, ENCHANTING PARAGON EQUIPMENT, OR OTHERWISE).  To read this correctly, note that where I succeeded, the percentages in the parentheses are the chances that you would have gotten ONLY ONE success with that many tries.  The clarifying clause after the hyphen illustrates what the chance of getting AT LEAST ONE success was with that many tries (i.e., the chance that you succeed with that many tries or fewer).

+10 to +11 - 744 fails, 0 success (5.1% chance of this outcome at 0.4%, 22% at 0.2%, 47% at 0.1%) - chance of success with 744 or fewer tries at 0.4% - 94.9%

+6 to +7 - 63 failures, no success (2.7% chance at 5.6%, 16% at chance at 2.8%, 41% chance at 1.4%) - chance of success with 63 or fewer tries at 5.6% - 97.3%

+8 to +9 - 68 failures, 1 success (30.2% chance at 2.6%, 14.5% chance at 36.8%, 36.0% chance at 1.15%)- chance of success with 68 or fewer tries at 2.6% - 83.3%

+6 to +7 - 57 failures, 1 success (12.2% chance at 5.6%, 32.2% chance at 2.8%, 36.4% chance at 1.4%) - chance of success with 57 or fewer tries at 5.6% - 96%

+7 to +8 - 45 failures ,1 success (27.8% chance at 4.3%, 37.6% chance at 2.15%, 61% chance at 1.1%) - chance of  success with 45 or fewer tries at 4.3% - 86.2%

+8 to +9 - 137 failures, 1 success (9.9% chance at 2.6%, 30.0% chance at 1.3%, 36.7% chance at 0.65%) - chance of success with 137 or fewer tries at 2.6% - 97.3%

+9 to +10 - 68 failures, 1 success (37% chance at 1.5%, 30.8% chance at 0.75%, 19.8% chance at 0.375%) - chance of success with 68 or fewer tries at 1.5% - 64.2%

+8 to +9 - 120 failures, 1 success (13.6% chance at 2.6%, 32.9% chance at 1.3%, 35.9% chance at 0.65%) - chance of success with 120 or fewer tries at 2.6% - 95.8%

+7 to +8 - 100 failures, no success (1.2% chance at 4.3%, 11.4% chance at 2.15%, 33.9% chance at 1.075%) - chance of success with 100 or fewer tries at 4.3% - 98.8%

From the foregoing, it seems statistically improbable to me (to put it mildly) that NCSoft did not materially lower paragon enchantment success rate above +6 during this event (as well as Yornforge tier2->tier3, but I'm not even that mad about that one), and I am currently in a dispute with Support with a potential to seek arbitration or file a claim for fraud.  I would appreciate if you could post your experience with the knowledge that it may be referenced in said arbitration/proceeding - so please do not over- or under-exaggerate.  A simple: how many tries at [x] level with no success or how many tries at [x] level with a success  - both "lucky" stories and "bad beats".  Please limit to above +6 enchanting with blessed paragon stones during this event.

Also, I want to clear up some confusion on statistics and probabilities so you all understand just how lucky (or unlucky) you are.  It is not as simple as saying "5% chance of success, so 20 tries on average because 20 x 5% = 100%," particularly as the probability for success starts approaching 0%.  Enchanting with blessed paragon stones is (or should be) a standard binomial probability (each attempt is (or should be) independent, and each is either success or failure).  If you want to know how likely you are to succeed with blessed paragon stones (which neither destroy the equipment on failure nor reduce the enchant level)  just  apply the following (NOTE: THIS IS FOR ILLUSTRATIVE AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY AND I MAKE NO CLAIMS OR REPRESENTATIONS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION SET FORTH IN THE REFERENCED SPREAD SHEET OR THE ACCURACY OF THE RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY STATISTICAL CALCULATOR THAT YOU USE).

(1) google a binomial calculator

(2) plug in the probability of success from that spread sheet linked in a post above (expressed as a decimal, so 0.4% becomes 0.004).

(3) plug in the number of blessed stones you intend to use, and type in "1 "for number of successes.

(4) Check the output for the probability that X is greater than or equal to x to see the chance that you would succeed in the number of tries you entered or fewer.

Per the above, at a 0.056 probability you had a 70.2% chance of getting  from +6 to +7 in 21 or fewer tries.  So I would say you were actually moderately unlucky with the caveat being that it appears they reduced the enchantment rate above +6 for paragon during this event to 50% or 25% of  the rates posted on aionpowerbook which match the rates in the spreadsheet linked to in a post above.   On the other hand, if enchant rates were nerfed, and you really had a 0.028 probability, you were mildly lucky in doing it with 21 stones (approximately 45% chance of succeeding in 21 or fewer tries at 0.028 probability).

-Mud

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, DoomKat-KT said:

TL:DR

What I saw was that going at +6 wasn't that hard but after +6 everything was broken-happy. One weapon went to +6 and it broke the very next enchant. The other two took more enchants to break from +6 to +7 but still broke kinda easy.

It felt as if at +6 the breaking rate under fail was far bigger than 10% that it was supposed to be.

Edited by Arhangelos
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12 hours ago, DoomKat-KT said:

Using  approximately 1,402 blessed paragon enchantment stones , here are my results above +6 (the following may be a bit off, but is materially accurate to the best of my knowledge; THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ILLUSTRATIVE AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON WHEN MAKING A DECISION REGARDING AION GENERALLY, ENCHANTING PARAGON EQUIPMENT, OR OTHERWISE).  To read this correctly, note that where I succeeded, the percentages in the parentheses are the chances that you would have gotten ONLY ONE success with that many tries.  The clarifying clause after the hyphen illustrates what the chance of getting AT LEAST ONE success was with that many tries (i.e., the chance that you succeed with that many tries or fewer).

How did you get 1402 Blessed stones? It is difficult to make 10.

+8 to +9 - 68 failures, 1 success (30.2% chance at 2.6%, 14.5% chance at 36.8%, 36.0% chance at 1.15%)- chance of success with 68 or fewer tries at 2.6% - 83.3%

So you have the only +8 to +9 that I have heard about and that was with all of those 1400 blessed stones? 

-Mud

 

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"+9 to +10 - 68 failures, 1 success (37% chance at 1.5%, 30.8% chance at 0.75%, 19.8% chance at 0.375%) - chance of success with 68 or fewer tries at 1.5% - 64.2%"

I would say you are very lucky - at least 2 of us have tried well over 150 blessed stones over 15 months and still at 9. Your 1408 stones don't really reflect the attempts since you used most on an impossible 10 to 11. The way it works is more like lottery you can get it first try or you can get it on 200 or 300th try and in the end it works out to 1.5% or whatnot. It is just trying your luck really... I know someone who got Close Wound Ulti oath on weapon on first try for example.

Anyway I know of no legitimate way to get 1408 blessed paragon stones...thats over 1.5 million BCM or 1408 paragon pieces + 1408 paragon stones - 1408 pieces is impossible with this low pop even if you farm every waking hour. If you dropped a few million dollars on BCM well at least you have something no one I know of has anymore and made 2 9s when I haven't heard of anyone getting a 9 during this event!

What you could do is post in suggestions to increase the odds for paragon enchants or make it easier to get blessed stones (the rest of us can't get 1000+ of them).

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Zappies-DN said:

Anyway I know of no legitimate way to get 1408 blessed paragon stones...thats over 1.5 million BCM or 1408 paragon pieces + 1408 paragon stones - 1408 pieces is impossible with this low pop even if you farm every waking hour. If you dropped a few million dollars on BCM well at least you have something no one I know of has anymore and made 2 9s when I haven't heard of anyone getting a 9 during this event!

If you are level 9 in main city (which is easy) and lakrum (which is even easier), you can buy 10 paragon tickets per week. That is 520 tickets per year. And I am leaving out being renown 9 to a difficult map which would give you more.

If you have a few alts that are renown 9 in the main city and/or lakrum you can get even more. It just requires a lot of dedication to take chars to renown 9, then keeping them at 9 is an easy task.

I personally had my main and alt in my main account, my main had like 300 tickets and that alt had like 90 because I did him to get the gelkmaros transformation so I won't waste 1500 XP marks on my main..

Edited by Arhangelos
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13 hours ago, Arhangelos said:

If you are level 9 in main city (which is easy) and lakrum (which is even easier), you can buy 10 paragon tickets per week. That is 520 tickets per year. And I am leaving out being renown 9 to a difficult map which would give you more.

If you have a few alts that are renown 9 in the main city and/or lakrum you can get even more. It just requires a lot of dedication to take chars to renown 9, then keeping them at 9 is an easy task.

I personally had my main and alt in my main account, my main had like 300 tickets and that alt had like 90 because I did him to get the gelkmaros transformation so I won't waste 1500 XP marks on my main..

Yes I know I had 140 tickets before event started - i mean the "Blessed" stones. The exchange tickets only give normal stones. To make blessed is very expenesive as you know.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/8/2022 at 9:56 AM, Zappies-DN said:

Yes I know I had 140 tickets before event started - i mean the "Blessed" stones. The exchange tickets only give normal stones. To make blessed is very expenesive as you know.

Actually you are right. The only "easy" way to make them is with Tiamaranta event with an abundance of paragon items and it would still be too much.

Edited by Arhangelos
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On 4/6/2022 at 11:38 AM, DoomKat-KT said:

I can give you a great deal of experience on Paragon Enchantment during this event.  I will also do an unofficial public service announcement since NCSoft has failed to do so (which failure is central to a claim for relief/arbitration that I am currently considering) (DISCLAIMER: I have repeatedly asked Support for an explanation and have been repeatedly told to post my experience on the forums; as such I am doing so at the direction of multiple GMs in compliance with the User Agreement and the Terms of Service).

WARNING!  ENCHANTMENT DURING THIS EVENT MAY BE AT A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RATE FROM "NORMAL" FOR ANY PARAGON EQUIPMENT ABOVE +6.  YOU SHOULD NOT BASE YOUR JUDGMENT ON WHETHER TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS EVENT ON ANY UNOFFICIAL PUBLISHED RATES OR PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE ENCHANTING PARAGON EQUIPMENT.

This has been neither confirmed nor denied by Support at multiple levels after multiple inquiries who have instead made several vague and potentially intentionally misleading statement regarding the system "working as intended".

And a second PSA which has been confirmed to me by Support.

WARNING! ENCHANTING A PARAGON ITEM THAT WAS +9 BEFORE THE EVENT TO +10 OR BETTER DURING THE EVENT WILL NOT COUNT TOWARDS QUALIFYING FOR THE EVENT REWARDS OTHER THAN WITH RESPECT TO THE NUMBER OF PARAGON STONES USED, WHICH WILL STILL COUNT TOWARDS THE "CONSUME 100 PARAGON STONES" REWARD LEVEL.

Using  approximately 1,402 blessed paragon enchantment stones , here are my results above +6 (the following may be a bit off, but is materially accurate to the best of my knowledge; THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ILLUSTRATIVE AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON WHEN MAKING A DECISION REGARDING AION GENERALLY, ENCHANTING PARAGON EQUIPMENT, OR OTHERWISE).  To read this correctly, note that where I succeeded, the percentages in the parentheses are the chances that you would have gotten ONLY ONE success with that many tries.  The clarifying clause after the hyphen illustrates what the chance of getting AT LEAST ONE success was with that many tries (i.e., the chance that you succeed with that many tries or fewer).

+10 to +11 - 744 fails, 0 success (5.1% chance of this outcome at 0.4%, 22% at 0.2%, 47% at 0.1%) - chance of success with 744 or fewer tries at 0.4% - 94.9%

+6 to +7 - 63 failures, no success (2.7% chance at 5.6%, 16% at chance at 2.8%, 41% chance at 1.4%) - chance of success with 63 or fewer tries at 5.6% - 97.3%

+8 to +9 - 68 failures, 1 success (30.2% chance at 2.6%, 14.5% chance at 36.8%, 36.0% chance at 1.15%)- chance of success with 68 or fewer tries at 2.6% - 83.3%

+6 to +7 - 57 failures, 1 success (12.2% chance at 5.6%, 32.2% chance at 2.8%, 36.4% chance at 1.4%) - chance of success with 57 or fewer tries at 5.6% - 96%

+7 to +8 - 45 failures ,1 success (27.8% chance at 4.3%, 37.6% chance at 2.15%, 61% chance at 1.1%) - chance of  success with 45 or fewer tries at 4.3% - 86.2%

+8 to +9 - 137 failures, 1 success (9.9% chance at 2.6%, 30.0% chance at 1.3%, 36.7% chance at 0.65%) - chance of success with 137 or fewer tries at 2.6% - 97.3%

+9 to +10 - 68 failures, 1 success (37% chance at 1.5%, 30.8% chance at 0.75%, 19.8% chance at 0.375%) - chance of success with 68 or fewer tries at 1.5% - 64.2%

+8 to +9 - 120 failures, 1 success (13.6% chance at 2.6%, 32.9% chance at 1.3%, 35.9% chance at 0.65%) - chance of success with 120 or fewer tries at 2.6% - 95.8%

+7 to +8 - 100 failures, no success (1.2% chance at 4.3%, 11.4% chance at 2.15%, 33.9% chance at 1.075%) - chance of success with 100 or fewer tries at 4.3% - 98.8%

From the foregoing, it seems statistically improbable to me (to put it mildly) that NCSoft did not materially lower paragon enchantment success rate above +6 during this event (as well as Yornforge tier2->tier3, but I'm not even that mad about that one), and I am currently in a dispute with Support with a potential to seek arbitration or file a claim for fraud.  I would appreciate if you could post your experience with the knowledge that it may be referenced in said arbitration/proceeding - so please do not over- or under-exaggerate.  A simple: how many tries at [x] level with no success or how many tries at [x] level with a success  - both "lucky" stories and "bad beats".  Please limit to above +6 enchanting with blessed paragon stones during this event.

Also, I want to clear up some confusion on statistics and probabilities so you all understand just how lucky (or unlucky) you are.  It is not as simple as saying "5% chance of success, so 20 tries on average because 20 x 5% = 100%," particularly as the probability for success starts approaching 0%.  Enchanting with blessed paragon stones is (or should be) a standard binomial probability (each attempt is (or should be) independent, and each is either success or failure).  If you want to know how likely you are to succeed with blessed paragon stones (which neither destroy the equipment on failure nor reduce the enchant level)  just  apply the following (NOTE: THIS IS FOR ILLUSTRATIVE AND DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY AND I MAKE NO CLAIMS OR REPRESENTATIONS AS TO THE ACCURACY OF THE INFORMATION SET FORTH IN THE REFERENCED SPREAD SHEET OR THE ACCURACY OF THE RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY STATISTICAL CALCULATOR THAT YOU USE).

(1) google a binomial calculator

(2) plug in the probability of success from that spread sheet linked in a post above (expressed as a decimal, so 0.4% becomes 0.004).

(3) plug in the number of blessed stones you intend to use, and type in "1 "for number of successes.

(4) Check the output for the probability that X is greater than or equal to x to see the chance that you would succeed in the number of tries you entered or fewer.

Per the above, at a 0.056 probability you had a 70.2% chance of getting  from +6 to +7 in 21 or fewer tries.  So I would say you were actually moderately unlucky with the caveat being that it appears they reduced the enchantment rate above +6 for paragon during this event to 50% or 25% of  the rates posted on aionpowerbook which match the rates in the spreadsheet linked to in a post above.   On the other hand, if enchant rates were nerfed, and you really had a 0.028 probability, you were mildly lucky in doing it with 21 stones (approximately 45% chance of succeeding in 21 or fewer tries at 0.028 probability).

-Mud

You want to talk math, we can talk math. Regardless of whatever fancy formula you want to apply here it is probably not necessary. It seems like the enchantment chance drops as the enchantment level increases. For example, enchanting something that is "+2" will fail more often than something that is "+1". Involving complex mathematical formulas for no reason whatsoever will only cause harm.

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On 4/7/2022 at 2:21 AM, Arhangelos said:

What I saw was that going at +6 wasn't that hard but after +6 everything was broken-happy. One weapon went to +6 and it broke the very next enchant. The other two took more enchants to break from +6 to +7 but still broke kinda easy.

It felt as if at +6 the breaking rate under fail was far bigger than 10% that it was supposed to be.

With what enchantment stones can equipment break on failure& If I have [BCM] Ultimate Paragon Enchantment Stones, don't they prevent breaking? This equipment is quite expensive on the broker (300+mln k) but weaker than Kerub's unless enchanted to +5 or more. So I don't know , to use it (the polearm is beautiful!) and try to enchant or to sell? It also writes "Cannot remodel" so it can't be used as a skin?    

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Posted (edited)
On 4/15/2022 at 7:44 AM, HelliosRed-KT said:

With what enchantment stones can equipment break on failure& If I have [BCM] Ultimate Paragon Enchantment Stones, don't they prevent breaking? This equipment is quite expensive on the broker (300+mln k) but weaker than Kerub's unless enchanted to +5 or more. So I don't know , to use it (the polearm is beautiful!) and try to enchant or to sell? It also writes "Cannot remodel" so it can't be used as a skin?    

The paragon enchant stones can break the item. When they fail there is about 10% chance it will break the item as well.

The blessed paragon enchants do not break the item on failure. The weapon cannot be remodeled and it also has a glowing effect depending on the amount of enchant it has, this way if you ever got a very high enchanted paragon you wouldn't be able to "hide" it behind a skin. And I think you cannot use paragon weapons for remodeling other weapons.

Edited by Arhangelos
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So the event says to enchant 3 or more armor or weapon to +9 or higher and the reward is a +10 box. the next one is to enchant 2 or more and you will get a +9 box. I hope this is account-wide and not per character. Example: If I enchanted two +8 weapon to +9 on two different toons-one on each, I should be entitled for a +9 reward box. I am trying to understand that all 2 or 3 pieces don't have to be done on one toon? it can be on multiple toons? correct?

Edited by Sedulicious-DN
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I'm sure it would be account wide though you might need a ticket. With how hard it is I wonder if anyone else even got the 2 +9s. I think they should drop the whole reward tiers by a level. I don't even know anyone who got 1 x +9, but haven't been on much lately.

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On 4/20/2022 at 5:01 AM, Zappies-DN said:

I'm sure it would be account wide though you might need a ticket. With how hard it is I wonder if anyone else even got the 2 +9s. I think they should drop the whole reward tiers by a level. I don't even know anyone who got 1 x +9, but haven't been on much lately.

I did open a ticket and they said it is account wide, but if you look at the march 23rd maintenance post, it was updated and that does not confirm what support sent me.

paragon-notes.jpg

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