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Arhangelos-KT

Post your Snow Bawlz rewards.

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taha-DN   
20 hours ago, TheSecretCowLeve-KT said:

It seems like in-game snowballs have a lower success rates than BCM snowballs. Out of 164 in-game snowballs I ran, only 1 made to +10. Bad RNG perhaps?

 

tbh that would not suprise me, ive done 12 toons every day so far and have yet to get any snowballs to 9, and ive even  done them in blocks of 50+. pw2 im sure will have way better chance of getting anything from event.

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21 hours ago, TheSecretCowLeve-KT said:

It seems like in-game snowballs have a lower success rates than BCM snowballs. Out of 164 in-game snowballs I ran, only 1 made to +10. Bad RNG perhaps?

Keep on the data coming in. Thanks!

I was going to do my complete data chances per snowball separately but only if I could trade all my snowballs to my main, now I won't But @Unbeatable-KT has done 2x videos (both exist in this post) that he opens a 755x +1 snowballs all the way up to +10 and another one that he opens some more snowballs and 70x prisms. You can draw a ton of statistics from these two videos.

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/520068915

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/520519774

55 minutes ago, taha-DN said:

tbh that would not suprise me, ive done 12 toons every day so far and have yet to get any snowballs to 9, and ive even  done them in blocks of 50+. pw2 im sure will have way better chance of getting anything from event.

Well BCM snowballs and ingame snowballs are two different items with two different IDs because the BCM ones are tradeable and the ingame not. So I wouldn't be shocked if this is the case BUT if you see the two videos above I got better rewards than unbeatable my first time around (3x +10 snowballs from my original case) so this is kind of bad rng.

Edited by Arhangelos-KT

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23 minutes ago, TheSecretCowLeve-KT said:

Are these daily quest (untradeable) snowballs? Thanks a lot

Yes they are from my alt accounts, I put every character's snowballs into account WH and claim them with the main char and then open them. I have a ton more alt accounts many from friends who quit long time ago, it is so boring to take them from snowman to warehouse manager and back. Otherwise I would have done is on all of them. I wait until they all get many snowballs before I put them in wh, so boring.

I trade the brilliant fragments and icy shards to my main, I'll open them later when I get more.

Edited by Arhangelos-KT

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On 11/12/2019 at 3:46 PM, Chibi-DN said:

yea.. well opened 2 more and got 1k frags (again) and another ancient con (-.-) seems like the legendary contracts/wise dragon king % is super low

A friend with 30~40 snowballs get 1leg on the first try. 

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1 hour ago, Aly-DN said:

Just under 200 snowballs (across 3 accounts). One +10.. 50million kinah.

 

It kinda feels like the first day of the event it was all good and nice RNG and as we proceed everything sucks. I got 3x +10 snowballs with 69 balls right when servers came up, 144 snowballs on an alt and not a single icy shard or +10 snowball.

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Treos-DN   

Just opened 114 snowballs 0 +10. 2 made it to +9 then proceeded to blow up. Bought 10 more with the 116 wintry coin I had just to test the rng. Highest level reached was +7. Total icy shards 7. I am going to say this seems like the same rng of the snowballs since the 6.0 patches have been released and I expect to get nothing like I did the times before. :S

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3 hours ago, Briearios-DN said:

Just opened 114 snowballs 0 +10. 2 made it to +9 then proceeded to blow up. Bought 10 more with the 116 wintry coin I had just to test the rng. Highest level reached was +7. Total icy shards 7. I am going to say this seems like the same rng of the snowballs since the 6.0 patches have been released and I expect to get nothing like I did the times before. :S

At least you got the 7 icy chards, they sell for quite an amount at least in my server/side, like 45~50m each.

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Treos-DN   
2 hours ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

At least you got the 7 icy chards, they sell for quite an amount at least in my server/side, like 45~50m each.

IF they cost that much on KT I am happy for you all. I just logged in 2 mins ago to attend siege and they are currently 9 mil and dropping on DN.

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16 minutes ago, Briearios-DN said:

IF they cost that much on KT I am happy for you all. I just logged in 2 mins ago to attend siege and they are currently 9 mil and dropping on DN.

Yes it matters on how many p2w people exist on the server and how many people there are on the server. I think Elyos-KT are even more expensive since they have a ton more players than we do in the Asmodian side.

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NUMS-KT   

No point trying to figure out my total now since ive been opening a lot every day and randomly 15x at a time, but I have opened over x250 10+ Brilliant Fragments that I bought off the broker. (even sold over 1000 icy's too)

 

..............Literally no Wise dragon weapon box.

 

-.- someone stuffed up.

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Frozen Magic Event 2019 Gacha Probabilities Spreadsheet

Additions to spreadsheet

  • All of Arhangelos-KT's images
  • 105 event snowballs after Wednesday maintenance from myself (87 from main account, 18 from alt account)
  • 255 BCM snowballs from Unbeatable-KT's second twitch stream
  • 70 Brilliant Ice Prisms from Unbeatable-KT's second twitch stream

Does it seems like event snowballs have been nerfed for week 2?

  • % of my 105 snowballs ended up as wintry coin / broken bundles:
    • +2: 10/71 (14%)
    • +3: 16/83 (19%)
    • +4: 18/70 (26%)
    • +5: 20/51 (39%)
    • +6: 23/38 (61%)
    • +7: 8/18 (44%)
    • +8: 6/8
    • +9: 1/2
Edited by TheSecretCowLeve-KT

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On 12/19/2019 at 7:23 AM, TheSecretCowLeve-KT said:

Frozen Magic Event 2019 Gacha Probabilities Spreadsheet

Additions to spreadsheet

  • All of Arhangelos-KT's images
  • 105 event snowballs after Wednesday maintenance from myself (87 from main account, 18 from alt account)
  • 255 BCM snowballs from Unbeatable-KT's second twitch stream
  • 70 Brilliant Ice Prisms from Unbeatable-KT's second twitch stream

Does it seems like event snowballs have been nerfed for week 2?

  • % of my 105 snowballs ended up as wintry coin / broken bundles:
    • +2: 10/71 (14%)
    • +3: 16/83 (19%)
    • +4: 18/70 (26%)
    • +5: 20/51 (39%)
    • +6: 23/38 (61%)
    • +7: 8/18 (44%)
    • +8: 6/8
    • +9: 1/2

I think they either got nerfed or there is an algorithm that takes into consideration the amount that is being opened. I never understood Aion RNG algorithms turning into a sure loss after some time.

It is like when you want to enchant an item past +10, it will fail for sure at +11 or +12 and then it will keep failing at +10 for like 20 enchants straight. You gotta leave it for a while and then try again. Some people might say this is just superstition but we all know we had to enchant-cancel many times before we would enchant our 5.8 weapons and take them all the way to +30 or something.

I have more accounts to open I was just bored to do, I'll do it in the end of this week so I have a lot of snowballs per account. I'll screenshot all o them individually so you get the statistics.

Edited by Arhangelos-KT

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... and the next 30 snowballs, 2 of them made to +10 ... then forgot to log in to alt account on that day, missed out 6 snowballs (3 characters eligible)

311 total snowballs, 4 Brilliant Ice Prisms (not opened) so far, documented in my spreadsheet

Edited by TheSecretCowLeve-KT

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16 hours ago, TheSecretCowLeve-KT said:

missed out 6 snowballs (3 characters eligible)

sDzd0fA.jpg

Let me tell you a sad story, I forgot to take the snowballs the first day in like 10 accounts of 12 chars each, that is 240 snowballs right there, children in afreeka could have eaten those snowballs that went to waste.

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@TheSecretCowLeve-KT

We might have one more week, but I am done with statistics, it took me so long to make sure I screenshot each and every opening in every step and then edit the huge screenshots and keep only the portion that matters and then merge them in this way.

On the top of each image you see which item was being opened and in what amount, and below you see the results. I double and triple checked everything so hope I didn't miss anything or didn't mix anything (which is almost impossible because each char had his own folder for screenshots).

As for the +10 ones I didn't open a single one, I am selling them all.

Uploaded on imgur, click to see the full size of them.

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Edited by Arhangelos-KT

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