Enchanting the DP daevanion

[Arhangelos]

I had quit long time ago trying  to get the DP daevanions mostly because they are yet another 2 sleeps that are so slow and conditional and pvp lasts less time than their cast time (ain't nobody got time to cast a 2 second skill when you are dead in 0.5 seconds) but since I had all other daevanions +15 I ended up with a hoard of daevanion book.

I finally got the two of them and did them +10 with books from other skills. Once I reached +10 to one of the books then it went downhills. The chance to succeed past +10 with a same bok is higher but the chance to upgrade with other books is still high enough.

I spend 14x books to go from +10 to +11, and then I wasted another 16 book with 16x daevanion essences and the skill is still +11

The chance to enchant with a non same book is 20% that is 1/5 enchants to succeed and so far the chance seems to be close to 5% if not less. I oviously won't even bother enchanting with non-same book from now on, I could have spent those 30x books I had to try to get me the same DP book as well, but something has to be done with the RNG and the "asuccess rate"

Same book vs non same book enchant rate for daevanions:

 

[Vantheria-DN]

Yeah, it's pretty abysmal. One of my DP skills went to +15 without too much effort (compared to the regular skills); it took like 15 books to go from 10-15. But the other DP skill... yikes. I kid you not, it took me nearly 50 books to go from 10-15.

[Arhangelos]

47 minutes ago, Vantheria-DN said:

Yeah, it's pretty abysmal. One of my DP skills went to +15 without too much effort (compared to the regular skills); it took like 15 books to go from 10-15. But the other DP skill... yikes. I kid you not, it took me nearly 50 books to go from 10-15.

It is not just the books, it is I got a lot of daevanion essences from a recent event and stacked them but I am running low, losing 16x books on that +11 meant I lost 16x daevanion essences.

[Gabrielis]

That doesn’t look like 20% rate...

[Arhangelos]

2 hours ago, Gabrielis-KT said:

That doesn’t look like 20% rate...

The +11 one seems to never move. 16x books and still +11 that is a 0% so far for me. If it was a real 20% theoretically every 5 trials I should get +1, of course chances and real RNG doesn't work like this but with 16x books it should at least have moved ONCE!

[Gabrielis]

7 hours ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

The +11 one seems to never move. 16x books and still +11 that is a 0% so far for me. If it was a real 20% theoretically every 5 trials I should get +1, of course chances and real RNG doesn't work like this but with 16x books it should at least have moved ONCE!

It is simple to calculate that tge probability of 16 fails in a row (if you did all 16 in a row and not in several hours or days) is 0.8^16 that makes 2.8% chance that is not really impossible but still... Let’s say it’s the same chance when you got your kaisinel

[Arhangelos]

6 hours ago, Gabrielis-KT said:

It is simple to calculate that tge probability of 16 fails in a row (if you did all 16 in a row and not in several hours or days) is 0.8^16 that makes 2.8% chance that is not really impossible but still... Let’s say it’s the same chance when you got your kaisinel

It would have been 2,8% chance if my +11 skill went to +12 with 16x books... mine is still +11.

To see my statistic I need to keep enchanting until it goes to +12 and then calculate it.

The problem with this is that it is supposed to be 20% which is quite a chance and so far mine is less than 2,8%

[Gabrielis]

24 minutes ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

It would have been 2,8% chance if my +11 skill went to +12 with 16x books... mine is still +11.

To see my statistic I need to keep enchanting until it goes to +12 and then calculate it.

The problem with this is that it is supposed to be 20% which is quite a chance and so far mine is less than 2,8%

2.8% is a chance to get 16 failures in a row with 80% failure rate. It means that if you make 16 enchants in a row, there is 2.8% probability they all fail. If you want 15 fails and 1 success out of 16 tries that will be 16*0.8^15*0.2 = 11.3% (for a single success)

[Crush]

I just feel like whatever Aion used for 'randomness' is reallllly bad. It is like sometimes it gets stuck on 'fail' and sometimes it gets stuck on 'success.' 

[Hallo-DN]

I had harder time obtaining it than enchanting ( 50+ skill books) but I did fail alot at 10-12+, 13+ it didnt take that much.

[Cyfur]

13 hours ago, Flatten-KT said:

I just feel like whatever Aion used for 'randomness' is reallllly bad. It is like sometimes it gets stuck on 'fail' and sometimes it gets stuck on 'success.' 

That's one of the reasons Aion Classic is popular, less things to RNG enchant. Basically, you get your gear up to +10 and it's done.

No Devonian skills, stigmas, glyphs etc. that need +15 but fail over and over in the process.

[Gabrielis]

16 hours ago, Flatten-KT said:

I just feel like whatever Aion used for 'randomness' is reallllly bad. It is like sometimes it gets stuck on 'fail' and sometimes it gets stuck on 'success.' 

I noticed exactly the same thing. I think the biggest difference between what I calculated above and Aion is that those formulas are for a series of independent events and in Aion they don’t seem to be independent. 

[Vasilios-KT]

On 2/12/2021 at 1:53 PM, Flatten-KT said:

I just feel like whatever Aion used for 'randomness' is reallllly bad. It is like sometimes it gets stuck on 'fail' and sometimes it gets stuck on 'success.' 

Its simple, on paper its 20% to success 80% to fail... but then its 90% youll get that 80% and .0001% 20% youll get that and dont ask where the other 9.9999% went... 

[Arhangelos]

On 2/12/2021 at 6:53 PM, Flatten-KT said:

I just feel like whatever Aion used for 'randomness' is reallllly bad. It is like sometimes it gets stuck on 'fail' and sometimes it gets stuck on 'success.' 

Exactly, once an item reaches +10 for example, if you keep enchanting it ti will fail for 20 times straight even though the chance is like 50% chance to succeed. And it happens so consistently that we made rules about it. once it goes to +10 leave it for some time and try later.

[dammitKaren-DN]

One my DP skills, not even kidding, took 27 books to go from 10->11

[Arhangelos]

4 hours ago, dammitKaren-DN said:

One my DP skills, not even kidding, took 27 books to go from 10->11

The chance is much lower than 20% there is no question to that.

[Crush]

16 hours ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

Exactly, once an item reaches +10 for example, if you keep enchanting it ti will fail for 20 times straight even though the chance is like 50% chance to succeed. And it happens so consistently that we made rules about it. once it goes to +10 leave it for some time and try later.

Yeah, it is crazy the things some people have come up. What is even crazier though is that it seems to work for them... I had a friend get like 6-7 +10 snowballs out of 70 a few times during the event. She was running around Oriel with these odd rules of when to spam them and when to run to the next group of houses. Me however, I just stood in Inggision and CLICKED CLICKED CLICKED CLICKED and what do you know... out of hundred of snowballs I only got 1 all event to +10 lol. 

[Arhangelos]

6 hours ago, Flatten-KT said:

Yeah, it is crazy the things some people have come up. What is even crazier though is that it seems to work for them... I had a friend get like 6-7 +10 snowballs out of 70 a few times during the event. She was running around Oriel with these odd rules of when to spam them and when to run to the next group of houses. Me however, I just stood in Inggision and CLICKED CLICKED CLICKED CLICKED and what do you know... out of hundred of snowballs I only got 1 all event to +10 lol. 

Because when you accept that the algorithm is flawed the best you can do is learn its behavior. This is what we did back in 5.8 and we managed to enchant our weapons to +25 or more. There were peopel that couldn't even make them +15 and I still have my 2x +27 weapons from 5.8 (one went to +29 but it never went past that)