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It seems to me that it's legitimately 30% now, where I've had my doubts before.  I'm not lucky with RNG but my results this year were good.

Last year, I got over 600 stigma enchant stones from the stormwing event, most of my stigmas were +7~8 and I managed to almost get my full set to +10, with a couple not able to hit the +9 safe spot. 

This year, with fewer than 300 stones, I got the entire set to +15 only using one 100% enchant stone on one stigma, the rest were all done with enchant stones.  Either I got exceptionally lucky, or they boosted the success rate - or a combination of both.

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Posted (edited)

30% is a rather low chance so if you see many enchant fails in a row, it is kinda justified. Imagine seeing 10 fails in a row in enchanting gear that the chance should be close to 50%, that is a fail.

Not to mention that to enchant 3 times successfully the chance is 30% * 30% * 30% = 2.7% which is pretty close to getting an ultimate transform by combining 2x legendaries.

Edited by Arhangelos-KT
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looks like Arhangelos is right in his calculations it takes around 50 stones to get 1stigma from  +9 to +12 

i needed 320 stones to get all 6 stones from +9 to +12 (even a little lower then the  2.7%)this rates are terrible hope they fix this in next patch

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18 hours ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

30% is a rather low chance so if you see many enchant fails in a row, it is kinda justified. Imagine seeing 10 fails in a row in enchanting gear that the chance should be close to 50%, that is a fail.

Not to mention that to enchant 3 times successfully the chance is 30% * 30% * 30% = 2.7% which is pretty close to getting an ultimate transform by combining 2x legendaries.

Yes, but...

30% does not tell the entire story, necessarily.  When is it 30%?  Is it 30% calculated overall?  Or is it a 30% chance of a simple success outcome?  Or does that factor all possible success outcomes?  Success isn't always +1, it can be +2~3.  Does the fail-without-decrease fall into the success or fail category?  Is it a lesser chance of success, weighted against the +0 and +2~3 outcomes?  You can't use a straight-line P(+12 to +15) = .3^3 if it's not a weighted average because a chance of a +2~3 success and the  additional factor of a non-decline failure skews the probability.

I enchanted 6 more stigmas yesterday.  I had one +7, two +8, two +9 one +10.  I used 111 stones on one toon, and 120 stones on a second toon (opened stormwing boxes on both).  I ended up with five +15, and one +12.  Today I opened another 7 boxes for 21 more enchant stones, and unfortunately the +12 is still a +12.  (The +12, Incite Rage, was originally +9 when I started, if that matters).

Maybe I just got lucky before, and again last night, I don't know.   If I had to pay for all those stones, I'm sure my frame of mind would be different; these were all free enchants. But even then, at 20m each (current highest price on DN broker) puts the total at 4.6b, 770m each of the 6 stigmas with one still needing more work.  I'm not sure that's all that bad.  You can buy advanced stigmas (at least for Templar) for cheaper than 770m on the broker when they are available, and with less stress. 

By the way, the odds of a 70% failure hitting 10 in a row (.7 ^10) is 2.82% :  - higher than the odds of hitting 3 successes in a row at 30%, so it's really not as remarkable as it sounds.

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7 hours ago, Shoenfein-DN said:

Yes, but...

30% does not tell the entire story, necessarily.  When is it 30%?  Is it 30% calculated overall?  Or is it a 30% chance of a simple success outcome?  Or does that factor all possible success outcomes?  Success isn't always +1, it can be +2~3.  Does the fail-without-decrease fall into the success or fail category?  Is it a lesser chance of success, weighted against the +0 and +2~3 outcomes?  You can't use a straight-line P(+12 to +15) = .3^3 if it's not a weighted average because a chance of a +2~3 success and the  additional factor of a non-decline failure skews the probability.

I enchanted 6 more stigmas yesterday.  I had one +7, two +8, two +9 one +10.  I used 111 stones on one toon, and 120 stones on a second toon (opened stormwing boxes on both).  I ended up with five +15, and one +12.  Today I opened another 7 boxes for 21 more enchant stones, and unfortunately the +12 is still a +12.  (The +12, Incite Rage, was originally +9 when I started, if that matters).

Maybe I just got lucky before, and again last night, I don't know.   If I had to pay for all those stones, I'm sure my frame of mind would be different; these were all free enchants. But even then, at 20m each (current highest price on DN broker) puts the total at 4.6b, 770m each of the 6 stigmas with one still needing more work.  I'm not sure that's all that bad.  You can buy advanced stigmas (at least for Templar) for cheaper than 770m on the broker when they are available, and with less stress. 

By the way, the odds of a 70% failure hitting 10 in a row (.7 ^10) is 2.82% :  - higher than the odds of hitting 3 successes in a row at 30%, so it's really not as remarkable as it sounds.

There is no +2/+3 past +9 I think, I could be wrong. The chance to succeed is 30%... and yes I didn't count the fact you can fail and still remain the same which is a good chance that makes it easier overall.

But the chance to have a fail and not go back to +12 is so small that if we had to add this to the equation it would make the chance even worse. I think the chance to fail and stay the same is like 10% or something.

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3 minutes ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

There is no +2/+3 past +9 I think, I could be wrong. The chance to succeed is 30%... and yes I didn't count the fact you can fail and still remain the same which is a good chance that makes it easier overall.

But the chance to have a fail and not go back to +12 is so small that if we had to add this to the equation it would make the chance even worse. I think the chance to fail and stay the same is like 10% or something.

There is at least +2 b/c I've gotten a +16 stigma before.

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37 minutes ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

There is no +2/+3 past +9 I think, I could be wrong. The chance to succeed is 30%... and yes I didn't count the fact you can fail and still remain the same which is a good chance that makes it easier overall.

But the chance to have a fail and not go back to +12 is so small that if we had to add this to the equation it would make the chance even worse. I think the chance to fail and stay the same is like 10% or something.

I'm not quite sure how you're coming up with the idea that the no-fault failure decreases the chance of success.  If there's a 10% chance to fail without decreasing and it comes from the failure rate, that means the rate of failure decreases from 70% to 60%.  If you add in the chances of a +2~3 in a given trial, that also increases the long-term mean rate of success.  If the no-fault failure is reducing the success rate, then the success rate is not 30%, so the math is still flawed, but in the other direction.

I've not been lucky enough to have a stigma bounce to +15 (or higher) like @Crush, but I've had a +12 jump to +14, so I can personally say there is at least +2 available at the +12 point.

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Y'all RNG sucks, I actually enchanted a stigma to +15 using 22 stigma enchantment stones from Zudra boxes.

Up your game & be lit af and the gang and i will pull up SKRRRT

8DB61EC662E9CEF44AB5E68F383A20A5D87B48E3

SKEEET SKEEET!!!!!!!

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2 hours ago, Crush said:

There is at least +2 b/c I've gotten a +16 stigma before.

...yes that is true, I remember I also had a +16 for this reason.

1 hour ago, Shoenfein-DN said:

I'm not quite sure how you're coming up with the idea that the no-fault failure decreases the chance of success.  If there's a 10% chance to fail without decreasing and it comes from the failure rate, that means the rate of failure decreases from 70% to 60%.  If you add in the chances of a +2~3 in a given trial, that also increases the long-term mean rate of success.  If the no-fault failure is reducing the success rate, then the success rate is not 30%, so the math is still flawed, but in the other direction.

I've not been lucky enough to have a stigma bounce to +15 (or higher) like @Crush, but I've had a +12 jump to +14, so I can personally say there is at least +2 available at the +12 point.

There is a chance to go +2 so the chances are even different. Truth is that we can add this chance too.

30% * 30% * 30% * 20% = 0.54% to succeed which should be added to the success rate in a way. It is still too low and pretty close to the chance I wrote originally.

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7 hours ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

...yes that is true, I remember I also had a +16 for this reason.

There is a chance to go +2 so the chances are even different. Truth is that we can add this chance too.

30% * 30% * 30% * 20% = 0.54% to succeed which should be added to the success rate in a way. It is still too low and pretty close to the chance I wrote originally.

Good morning.

I see now why you think it's lower, but the math is wrong.  You don't multiply another 20% there. 

Using a coin toss example, if we were flipping a coin, 3 times, the odds are 50% * 50% * 50%.  If we flip a coin a 4th time, we add another * 50%, and that becomes the odds of flipping heads (or tails) 4 times in a row.  If instead we use a weighted coin for the 3rd flip that is 20% more likely to flip heads, it doesn't become 50% * 50% * 50% * 20%.   The change would be 50% * 50% * 70%.  That's how you add an increase in chance.  Multiplying another number increases *trials* not odds.  The way you are calculating it is to calculate the odds of enchanting successfully 4 times in a row, with the odds of the 4th chance at 20%, so what you are formulating a calculation for is...

30% chance to get to +13.  Then 30% chance to get to +14.  Then 30% chance to get to +15.  Then 20% chance to get to +16, which of course is not what we're after. 

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Shoenfein-DN said:

Good morning.

I see now why you think it's lower, but the math is wrong.  You don't multiply another 20% there. 

Using a coin toss example, if we were flipping a coin, 3 times, the odds are 50% * 50% * 50%.  If we flip a coin a 4th time, we add another * 50%, and that becomes the odds of flipping heads (or tails) 4 times in a row.  If instead we use a weighted coin for the 3rd flip that is 20% more likely to flip heads, it doesn't become 50% * 50% * 50% * 20%.   The change would be 50% * 50% * 70%.  That's how you add an increase in chance.  Multiplying another number increases *trials* not odds.  The way you are calculating it is to calculate the odds of enchanting successfully 4 times in a row, with the odds of the 4th chance at 20%, so what you are formulating a calculation for is...

30% chance to get to +13.  Then 30% chance to get to +14.  Then 30% chance to get to +15.  Then 20% chance to get to +16, which of course is not what we're after. 

30% (+13) * 30% (+14) * 20% (fail but not go lower +14) * 30% (+15), I put the 20% last, my bad

But anyways, there is more to the formula than just the 30% chance to succeed, since it can go +2 so the chances are higher.

Edited by Arhangelos-KT
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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, The Secret Cow Level said:

From +9 onwards, the chance to get a +2 from a successful enchantment is only 1%.

Non-NA stigma enchantment success rates

They increased the success rate from 20% to 30% from +9 and forward. It has been a while since we had this change. If I remember correctly it was during summer of 2020 that they did it.

Edited by Arhangelos-KT
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