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Plume Statistics - Old Forum Repost


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Older players know the risks involved in going for Tempering Event rewards, but newer players might fall into a false sense of hope not knowing exactly how painful it can be.
Full Credit to Adryss. 

For those mathematically inclined, here's a little bit about plumes.

From http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8eUNNG8Ozs (and part 2), there were enough samples to conclude the following rates:

+1 - 100%
+2 - 95%
+3 - 90%
+4 - 80%
+5 - 60%
+6 - 50%
+7 - 40%

From the results he got after +7 and the pattern, it should be safe to assume
+8 - 30%
+9 - 20%
+10 - 10%

This is a compound probability, so we look at the overall rates (3 significant figures).
+1 - 100%
+2 - 95.0%
+3 - 85.5%
+4 - 68.4%
+5 - 41.0%
+6 - 20.5%
+7 - 8.21%
+8 - 2.46%
+9 - 0.493%
+10 - 0.0492%

So how many plumes and tempering solutions would be required for each level on average? The plumes are easy - take 1 and divide it by the compound probability (3 significant figures). 
+1 - 1.00
+2 - 1.05
+3 - 1.16
+4 - 1.46
+5 - 2.43
+6 - 4.87
+7 - 12.2
+8 - 40.6
+9 - 203
+10 - 2030

Tempering solutions are a bit trickier. You need to create an infinite geometric series, which is (a/1-r). a should be the tempering solutions required for the previous level on average, plus 1, and r should be the rate of failure. With this, we get these amount of solutions (3 significant figures):
+1 - 1.00
+2 - 2.11
+3 - 3.45
+4 - 5.56
+5 - 10.9
+6 - 23.9
+7 - 62.2
+8 - 211
+9 - 1060
+10 - 10600

 

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4 hours ago, Transcend-KT said:

Any statistics on people getting +20 on basic plume?  I've seen pictures and posts of people having it via google but no date range or how many it took.

In the 5.8 update, normal plumes are capped at +18, thus there is almost no reason to continue tempering normal plumes any more.

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On 12/23/2017 at 9:07 AM, Mempo-KT said:

In the 5.8 update, normal plumes are capped at +18, thus there is almost no reason to continue tempering normal plumes any more.

Well...that's unfortunate.  So you'd essentially have to get +20 before Jan 10th and then purify it if you want those massive base stats?

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I can't edit posts here but after reading what you said I gave up on the idea of getting +20 plume and just bought a +5 Pure for 1.4b and 3 omegas, 1.7b in total.  Please tell me I didn't get ripped off.  T_T I really want the Felic Box...but like the 50 lunas are good too I guess?  Now I'm wondering if I should try for +7 to get 150 lunas...

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Sorry for the slow replies. I have to decide whether playing 5.8 is worth it by judging Korea's 6.0 update before I come back to play.

 

22 hours ago, Rinkusan-KT said:

So are you telling me that the people who +10'd their plume with 1000 tempering solutions were lucky??

Based on the assumptions made for these calculations, yes. These numbers are to 'ensure' a +10, where as we all know it's very possible to get lucky. The players I know that have theirs told me between 2k and 4k was the consensus on spending.

20 hours ago, Watto-KT said:

What about the chinese with +107 attack plumes, how can they get a way with it. Is it referring to new plumes tempered in 5.8?

These are the old plumes, which before 5.8 had no cap. There was an infamous Korean with a +50 blue plume, and I think Hhwans on KT stuck to a regular plume as well. I'm not sure what he had his at, but he had a Peitans weapon on top, so we can go figure.

 

6 hours ago, Transcend-KT said:

Well...that's unfortunate.  So you'd essentially have to get +20 before Jan 10th and then purify it if you want those massive base stats?

No, if you purify a +20 plume at the moment you will receive a +0 Pure Plume afaik. Purfiying a +10 Plume will reward you with a +2 Pure Plume after 5.8, but I think that's as far as forward tempering you can go.

6 hours ago, Transcend-KT said:

I can't edit posts here but after reading what you said I gave up on the idea of getting +20 plume and just bought a +5 Pure for 1.4b and 3 omegas, 1.7b in total.  Please tell me I didn't get ripped off.  T_T I really want the Felic Box...but like the 50 lunas are good too I guess?  Now I'm wondering if I should try for +7 to get 150 lunas...

You are in for much pain. I wish you the best of luck, but do not expect to get a +7 Plume from that alone. I would prepare for 3 or 4 attempts at +6 and step temper them all until only one plume hasn't failed.

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