Statistics: Transf. Boxes, Normal Contracts etc

[Arhangelos]

This is a help to those that do not have 12x ancients to combine and wanna try the luna crafted transformation boxes.

Overview:

1. Crafted 100x boxes with the 75% recipe, I had 22% fails so that was good.
2. Got 340x contracts from the 100x boxes
3. Got more than what I needed in ancients directly and by combining for the event.

Details (if you are not bored to read):

I am going to be the guinea pig for everyone, but before this take some advice:

1. From now on never combine your transforms unless we have a promotion event. You never know what the next promotion will need.
2. In your main account, when you do lunas on main char and alts, never fully deplete your luna's lights, always leave enough luna's lights for future needs. You can always turn your luna materials into luna at any time you want, but if you need to craft something out of the blue or a new recipe, you need to have accumulated materials.

--
So back to the subject, I had an alt in my account that had a ton of luna materials that I never turned into Luna. So I was waiting for him to get the transformation recipe, I used the 75% because it worths far more, I calculated my failure was close to 22%, so that counted as a 78% recipe, but the 75% recipe uses half the material of the 100% recipe, so it is a win situation with less material you get more boxes.

I made sure I would craft 100x Luna Transformation Boxes to draw statistics.  I could craft more but they were more than enough it seems.

Opening the boxes can give you 2x, 4x, 6x or 8x contracts, so I assume these are the only amounts you can get from one box.
The amount I got in the end was 340 contracts out of 100 boxes, o that makes it 3,4 contracts per box.

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My Goal was to get more ancient contracts to get the 12x ancient combine promotion event reward. And although I already had 5x ancient doubles, I ended up with a ton more which were more than enough.

LASTLY: If you have 12x ancients you can combine 2 times with 6x contracts per time. This supposedly will give you better chance at getting a legendary and you still count towards the reward for the event.

If you do not have 12x double ancients, you can always combine 2x at a time, because you combine 2x and thus register as 2-combined for the event, but you end up getting one back because you will always fail to upgrade, effectively you lose 1 and register 2 in the event. Thus you need 7 double ancients to get the 12x combines registered

Attention: that would work if you ALWAYS fail the 2x ancient combine and get another double ancient. If you get a legendary lucky you but you need more ancients for the promotion event reward. If you get a new ancient that you didn't have you still need more than 7.

Below you will see the videos of the procedures.

@TheSecretCowLeve-KT you can draw statistics.

• Along with the average of 3,4/box, you can also see how many times I got 2x, 4x, 6x, 8x contracts (the video is sped up but you can easily check the chat log, I have it with seconds registered so it is easy to track.
• How many of each tier I got by opening the 340x contracts (too bored to check it, I'll update the video description if you make your statistical data)
• How many successful upgrades and fails I did with 6x normal and 6x greater. The ancient ones were done 2x and they all failed.

 

 

 

 

[Arhangelos]

And for those that asked me in message how is 7x enough to make 12x combines, here is a simple visual explanation I just made.

[Weevie-KT]

wow thank you so much for this.  I always thought those boxes were 1 contract each so never bother.  Do you know how much mats is required to craft?

[Arhangelos]

6 minutes ago, Weevie-KT said:

wow thank you so much for this.  I always thought those boxes were 1 contract each so never bother.  Do you know how much mats is required to craft?

Yes:

They are all identical to the kinah box recipe. So if you want contracts they worth a ton since one kinah box gives on average 7m~7.5m (5,10,20,35,100m but the average is like 7m or close, I did the time to check some time ago and this was the statistical data I drew)

So instead of getting 7m (1 kinah box) you can get 3,5x contracts. GST is selling them for 12.375.000 each and only 1 per char per week.

[Vasilios-KT]

@Arhangelos-KT how much Luna lights did you spend on combining? There was so many numbers, and it’s so early in the morning it sort of just consumed me. 

[Arhangelos]

33 minutes ago, Vasilios-KT said:

@Arhangelos-KT how much Luna lights did you spend on combining? There was so many numbers, and it’s so early in the morning it sort of just consumed me. 

You do not spend Luna's light when you combine, but when you craft.

I didn't show this on the video when I crafted them, but I had 22% fails, so the 75% recipe acted better one me. So I had to craft 128 recipes to get 100 boxes (28 recipes failed)

100/128 = 78,125% chance to succeed.

I used the 1x luna's light recipe, thus I spend 128 luna's light on that which is a little more than 4 months worth of luna on that toon. He still has more but I do not need more so I won't waste more now.

 

[Vasilios-KT]

1 hour ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

You do not spend Luna's light when you combine, but when you craft.

I didn't show this on the video when I crafted them, but I had 22% fails, so the 75% recipe acted better one me. So I had to craft 128 recipes to get 100 boxes (28 recipes failed)

100/128 = 78,125% chance to succeed.

I used the 1x luna's light recipe, thus I spend 128 luna's light on that which is a little more than 4 months worth of luna on that toon. He still has more but I do not need more so I won't waste more now.

 

Thats a lot of luna, haha. If Im able to do luna every single day until the 20th, before the event ends, ill be able to get 192 Luna Lights. And then I just have to hope I get the transform box.

[Arhangelos]

1 hour ago, Vasilios-KT said:

Thats a lot of luna, haha. If Im able to do luna every single day until the 20th, before the event ends, ill be able to get 192 Luna Lights. And then I just have to hope I get the transform box.

If you get the recipe then craft a many as you can. Sadly youm ight have a lot of mats in a char and never get it within the time frame.

I have other chars full of mats and I was checking daily. Thankfully I got it at some point.

[Vantheria-DN]

Really good thread, thanks for sharing.

[The Secret Cow Level]

Thanks Arhangelos for the videos, putting them into spreadsheets!

Luna Craft Transformation Contract "62 Type" Box

Transformation Contract (64 Types)

Transformation Contract Combination (Datamined, still valid as of 7.5 part 2)

[Arhangelos]

5 hours ago, TheSecretCowLeve-KT said:

Thanks Arhangelos for the videos, putting them into spreadsheets!

Luna Craft Transformation Contract "62 Type" Box

Transformation Contract (64 Types)

Transformation Contract Combination (Datamined, still valid as of 7.5 part 2)

I'll put a link in the video descriptions in youtube to your spreadsheets. Some people might not be entering these forums so they can still see the details.

[Arhangelos]

Add these too, I won't make another video obviously (unless I decide to craft like 1000 boxes )

I got 42 contracts out of 14 boxes here:

And 42 contracts gave me these:

--

Then I got 46 out of 12, much luckier here

And these 46 gave me these transformations:

[Briearios]

I had 106 contracts. Only received one Ancient transformation. I was annoyed. Then every 4 green transformations I combined gave me an Ancient transformation.. RNG is this game is so baffling..

[Arhangelos]

15 hours ago, Treos-DN said:

I had 106 contracts. Only received one Ancient transformation. I was annoyed. Then every 4 green transformations I combined gave me an Ancient transformation.. RNG is this game is so baffling..

Yes at one point I combined my normal transformations and I was getting a greater pretty much all the time, I got like 11 combines in a row to give me normal->greater. I just couldn't believe it.

You combine 4x greens instead of 6?

 

[Briearios]

11 hours ago, Arhangelos-KT said:

Yes at one point I combined my normal transformations and I was getting a greater pretty much all the time, I got like 11 combines in a row to give me normal->greater. I just couldn't believe it.

You combine 4x greens instead of 6?

 

Yes I combined 4 greens instead of 6, 4 or 5 times and every result was an Ancient transformation.

[Arhangelos]

40 minutes ago, Treos-DN said:

Yes I combined 4 greens instead of 6, 4 or 5 times and every result was an Ancient transformation.

I'll give it a try myself then and I'll see too, you never know how tweaked our chances are.

[The Secret Cow Level]

[Removed from NA] If you combine only 2 or 3 duplicate transforms, you have 30% and 15% chance of getting a lower grade transformation respectively.

On other regions you are forced to combine at least 4 dupes at a time so you don't get a lower grade transformation. On here you can just combine 2 at a time for much better chance of unlocking new transformation of the same grade.

[Arhangelos]

12 hours ago, TheSecretCowLeve-KT said:

[Removed from NA] If you combine only 2 or 3 duplicate transforms, you have 30% and 15% chance of getting a lower grade transformation respectively.

On other regions you are forced to combine at least 4 dupes at a time so you don't get a lower grade transformation. On here you can just combine 2 at a time for much better chance of unlocking new transformation of the same grade.

Well here is what

• 2x ancients has 5,5% chance to give a higher transformation
  If you have 6 doubles and you make 2x combines, you can combine 5 times in total, so you can get anything from 0 to 5 higher transforms
• 6x ancients has 27,5% chance to give a higher transformation
  If you combine 6x at a time you can only do one so you can get anything from 0 to 1 higher transform.

Now if you do 5 times with 2xcontract it could seem "accumulative" like 5 times x 5,5% = 27,5%. But chances do not work accumulative. Rather every time you combine you play your luck with a 5,5% chance to get a higher transform against a 94,5% to get the same level. Every combine you do is irrelevant to the previous combines and their results so the chance cannot be "altered" or affected by anything

It is kinda down to people's preference on whether they want to take more tries with lower chances vs less tries with a higher chance.

→ I kinda hate me for using 2x ancients for this, because as you saw that 5,5% didn't do me any favor at all and I had more than 12 double ancients so I could do 2 combines with 6x at a time and have a better chance at getting a legendary. Of course if I got a legendary out of combining 2x the feelings would have been different.

(remember I got ulti by combining 2x legendaries first try first than anyone, so I beat all the odds)